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Game Day Advisor - Week 11

By komments on Saturday, 15th November 2008

Every week we host a pregame chat/call-in show where we discuss the Game Day Inactives for the early Sunday games along with dispensing advice on who to start or bench. We welcome calls from anyone with a question and try to get everyone on the air.

To listen, just point your browser to http://www.blogtalkradio.com/Fantasy-Sports-Group.

The channel page features a Chat window where you can discuss anything football related that you care to.

Or, if you want to be heard on the air, the number to call in is (347) 826-9620 . Your call, along with the show, will go into the archive so you can point your family and friends to it. This way you can display your on-air personality and fantasy football acumen!

News
Vick Wants Back In
Michael Vick did the unforgivable. He embarrassed the NFL. Forget for a second that he tortured dogs for sport. That he broke several state and federal laws. Even that he embarrassed himself, his family and team — all of that is irrelevent to the point of this story. Vick embarrassed the NFL. And now he wants back in.

He will be free in July of next year and he would like some NFL team to take a chance on him.

Will it happen? Well that is the 60 million dollar question. And that might be the amount he stands to make if he is reinstated. Vick is very good at one thing — he puts people in the stands. And there are a lot of NFL owners that will take that fact into consideration. And he needs just one to agree so he can buy his way out of bankruptcy.

But should any team pin their hopes on Ron Mexico — given his past? Well, that is a question that will be answered in the coming year.

Game Day Advisor: Vick still has some legal hurdles to clear before any of this matters. He has two state charges that are outstanding and could lengthen his prison term substantially. He has a history of untrustworthiness. And he has been out of football for two years. His TD to INT ratio is horrendous (71 - 74) and his completion percentage is south of 54%. He is a huge risk for any team that takes him on. So why do I get the feeling that some team is going to do just that?

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Jerry Jones Wants Pacman Back
Jerry Jones has made it clear that if NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell reinstates Adam Jones, Jones will be welcomed back to the Cowboys with open arms.

“Yes, if Adam does the kinds of things that the league has asked him to do and that he’s doing, if he’s done that and satisfied that criteria, then yes, we would,” (Jerry) Jones said.

Game Day Advisor: I can think of two reasons Jones would welcome Pacman back. One, as long as Adam Jones is suspended, Jerry Jones has to write a check to the NFL. That has to be getting old. The other is that the Dallas pass defense has been non-existent since the Cowboys lost Terrence Newman to injury and PacMan to suspension. Of course the next suspension will cost Jones even more money but what the hey — Jerry believes in second,err, third, err fourth, err 16th chances.

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Week 11 Early Games
NYJ @ NE
Anyone that thinks special teams don’t matter should take a lesson from this game. Matt Cassell threw for 400 yards and three TDs. The Patriots running game topped 100 yards and averaged 5.0 yards per carry. And still the Patriots lost. Why? Because Leon Washington had a 92-yard kickoff return for a score and Jay Feely made an overtime, game-winning kick. Brett Favre had a good game — not great — and avoided turnovers for the second week in a row. But one long return provided the lead that allowed the Jets to get this game into overtime where they won it.

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DEN @ ATL
This is a matchup of a strong running game vs. a strong passing game. Neither defense should be able to stop, or possibly even slow, the opposing offense so expect a game with lots of yardage and scoring. Denver will likely be without top CB Champ Bailey so Roddy White should have a very good day but the Atlanta stars will likely be Michael Turner and Jerrious Norwood. Denver allows 5.1 yards rushing per game. On the other side of the ball, Peyton Hillis will start at running back so expect Denver to attack Atlanta’s young corners via the air. I would not be surprised to see 40+ passing attempts from Jay Cutler today. Expect big games from both Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal. Tony Scheffler should also be a good play.

Inactives
DEN: FS Marlon McCree, CB Champ Bailey, RB Selvin Young, RB Alex Haynes, LB DJ Williams, LB Nate Webster, DT Nic Clemons, DE Tim Crowder

ATL: QB DJ Shockley (3rd), CB Brent Grimes, FS Thomas DeCoud, LB Tony Gilbert, C Alex Stepanovich, T Sam Baker, DE Simon Fraser, DT Kindal Moorehead

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DET @ CAR
If Detroit had any skills (or should that be skillz) at all, this would be the ideal trap game. They don’t so don’t hold your breath for the Lions first win. It probably won’t come until 2009. The Panthers have won three in a row in this series and shouldn’t struggle against a defense that can’t stop the run and only has one interception by a DB this year. Both starting DEs for the Lions will be sitting this one out so Carolina should be able to dictate the score.

Inactives
DET: QB Dan Orlovsky, DB Keith Smith, SS Dwight Smith, FB Jerome Felton, C Dominic Raiola, WR Mike Furrey, DE Jared DeVries, DE Dewayne White

CAR: QB Matt Moore (3rd), DB C.J. Wilson, LB James Anderson, C Ryan Kalil, T Jeremy Bridges, WR Dwayne Jarrett, WR Kenny Moore, DT Darwin Walker

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PHI @ CIN
Cincinnati got their lone win prior to their Bye last week. Don’t expect a repeat performance. The Eagles need this game or risk falling out of the race for the NFC East and potentially the playoffs. Ryan Fitzpatrick has become a decent NFL quarterback and even has some fantasy value. He certainly has the receivers needed to succeed and with Cedric Benson providing a strong rushing attack, this offense is as balanced as it has been all year. On the other hand, the Cincinnati defense is pathetic. They get no pass rush and that should allow Donovan McNabb the opportunity to have a big day.

Inactives
PHI: QB Jay Feeley (3rd), RB Lorenzo Booker, RB Kyle Eckel, LB Joe Mays, DE Bryan Smith, G Shawn Andrews, G Mike McGlynn, TE Matt Schobel

CIN: QB Carson Palmer (3rd), DE Eric Henderson, T Anthony Collins, TE Nate Lawne, WR Andrew Caldwell, WR Jerome Simpson, DE Antwan Odom, DT Jason Shirley

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MIN @ TB
The Vikings have never won at Raymond James Stadium. Tampa has beaten them in their last three matchups as well. We should see the return of Cadillac in this game but the Buccaneers will need to beat Minnesota through the air if they want to win. That could mean Antonio Bryant and Joey Galloway are good starts. Definitely keep Adrian Peterson in your lineup. He may not be completely healthy but he is still one of the best in the league.

Inactives
MIN: QB John David Booty, LB Erin Henderson, T Marcus Johnson, DE Otis Grigsby, FB Jeff Dugan, WR Robert Ferguson, DT Letroy Guion

TB: QB Josh Johnson (3rd), QB Brian Griese, WR Dexter Jackson, SS Jermaine Phillips, RB Carnell “Cadillac” Williams, T James Lee, TE Alex Smith, DT Greg Peterson

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BAL @ NYG
The last time these two teams met Baltimore forced six turnovers from Eli Manning. Manning is playing much better this year but turnovers are still a concern. For New York to win this game, Manning must play well. The Giants defense should stifle the Ravens offense but they will need a little help. Expect at least a couple big plays on play action by the Giants on offense. But don’t expect this to be a very fantasy friendly game — unless you play in IDP leagues.

Inactives
BAL: QB Todd Bouman, WR Terrance Copper, CB Evan Oglesby, LB Antwan Barns OT Willie Anderson, WR Marcus Smith, TE Daniel Wilcox, DT Lamar Divens

NYG: K John Carney, RB Danny Ware, CB Kevin Dockery, LB Jonathan Goff, LB Gerris Wilkinson, OL Adam Koets, WR Mario Manningham, DE Jerome McDougle

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OAK @ MIA
The Raiders have nine offensive TDs this year. The Dolphins have eight out of their Wildcat formation — a formation utilized to great success by Raiders running back Darren McFadden. With Tedd Ginn, Jr finally looking like the receiver I predicted he would become in the preseason, this Miami offense is gaining respect league-wide. It never hurts to have two explosive running backs with a deep threat receiver and a great possesion guy (Greg Camarillo). Look for Miami to beat up big-time on the Raiders who are making a difficult cross country trip.

Inactives
OAK: QB Andrew Walter (3rd), DB Michael Waddell, RB Jason Davis, DE Derrick Burgess, LB Ricky Brown, C Jake Grove, OT James Marten, WR Javon Walker

MIA: QB John Beck (3rd), WR Ernest Wilford, DB Joey Thomas, G Shawn Murphy, DE Lionel Dotson, T Nate Garner, TE Joey Haynos, DE Rodrique Wright

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NO @ KC
The good news is that the Chiefs get Larry Johnson back. They might even have Jamaal Charles back to spell him. Tyler Thigpen has had three very solid outings in a row and the Chiefs offense is showing signs of life. The bad news is that they are still the Chiefs and their defense couldn’t stop a high school team like the Lions — well maybe they could stop the Lions — but they won’t stop the Saints. Don’t expect Reggie Bush to play this week but the Saints still should put up plenty of points.

Inactives
NO: QB Joey Harrington (3rd), RB Reggie Bush, CB Aaron Glenn, CB David Pittman, FB Mike Karney, T Jermon Bushrod, C Jonathan Goodwin, WR David Patten

KC: CB Patrick Surtain, CB Brandon Flowers, TE Michael Merritt, LB Pat Thomas, LB Derrick Johnson, T Andrew Carnahan, G Adrian Jones, DE Tamba Hali

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CHI @ GB
With the Vikings facing a team that has owned them recently, Green Bay could force a three-way tie for first in the NFC North. Chicago and Minnesota are tied with 5-4 records while the Pack trails with a 4-5 record. Taking on the Bears at home has to help but not as much as having a healthy defense on the field. This game will be the true test of whether the Packers did the right thing in rushing Brett Favre out the door. This is the type of game he thrived on and with the Bears pass defense so vulnerable, Green Bay needs a big game from Aaron Rodgers to win this game. With Kyle Orton expected to return for Chicago, this could be a very entertaining game.

Inactives
CHI: QB Caleb Hanie (3rd), CB Marcus Hamilton, RB Kevin Jones, T Fred Miller, DT Matt Toeaina, WR Earl Bennett, NT Anthony Adams, DE Ervin Baldwin

GB: QB Brian Brohm (3rd), CB Pat Lee, RB DeShawn Wynn, LB Nick Barnett, T Breno Giacomini, G Allen Barbre, WR Ruvell Martin, DE Jeremy Thompson

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HOU @ IND
Talk about owning a team — Indy has a 12-1 record against the Texans. They are 6-0 at home. Sage Rosenfels has not proven he can protect the ball and with Peyton Manning catching fire in recent weeks, now is not the time to be handing him the ball surreptitiously. Steve Slaton should have a decent game against the Colts but with Bob Sanders back in the lineup their run defense is much improved on what it was just three weeks ago. Imagine that, one man — and a safety at that — is the key to the Colts entire run defense.

Inactives
HOU: QB Matt Schaub, WR Andre Davis, LB Kevis Coley, LB Morlon Greenwood, G Kasey Studdard, T Rashad Butler, TE Mark Bruener, DT Amobi Okoye

IND: SS Bob Sanders, CB Kelvin Hayden, LB Buster Davis, C Steve Justice, WR Roy Hall, TE Tom Santi, DT Daniel Muir, DE Curtis Johnson

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Late Games
STL @ SF
The battle of the 2-7’s. How exciting. Both teams have replaced the coaches who started the season with them. Both teams continue to struggle. I wonder if Mike Martz got the number of the bus Mike Singletary threw him under last week. Two running plays on the goalline with time running out in a Martz offense? I wouldn’t have believed it if I hadn’t seen it myself. This week Frank Gore will need to be very involved in the offense. For the Colts — who knows. Antonio Pittman will start but he is playing like a Woody Hayes feature back — three yards and a cloud of turf. An ugly game between two ugly teams. Ugh.

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ARI @ SEA
Who would have thougth the Arizona Cardinals would run away with their division at the beginning of the year. Insert a proven veteran into the quarterback slot. Give the rookie the rock on the ground. And you have a very explosive offense. But their defense has — for the most part — been equally impressive. Even with Matt Hasselbeck back, I don’t see how the Seahawks can win this game. The final hoorah for Mike Holmgren has been pretty nasty thus far and doesn’t look to get any better. If he weren’t retiring after this year, he likely would be facing the firing squad as well.

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TEN @ JAC
One more week the Dolphins will need to keep the champaigne on ice. Am I the only one that hopes the Titans run the table just to get Mercury Morris and his band of idiots off the sports pages? Personally I hope when some team does go undefeated they have the class to send the champaigne to the new record holders. But I am not holding my breath. Tennessee will win this game with a strong rushing game and minimal passing. Kerry Collins proved he could carry the team last week so don’t expect anyone else to force a 40 pass game out of Tennessee again.

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SD @ PIT
I feel for the Chargers. LaDainian Tomlinson is not healthy and combining that with a cross country trip spells doom for San Diego. Pittsburgh is playing well despite the injuries to its running backs and quarterback. But this week should see Willie Parker fully healthy — even if Ben Roethlisberger is not — and that should make the difference in the game. Well that and the dominate Steelers defense.

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DAL @ WAS
They say Tony Romo will play with a splint on his finger. I wonder how that is going to work out since that finger needs to be used for gripping the ball. Just having Romo back should open up things in the running game though and between that and the fact that Washington will be turning to LaDell Betts, a player just back from injury himself, should allow the road team to squeak out a win in this rivalry.

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CLE @ BUF
NOTES
Buffalo, oh Buffalo, wherefore art thou oh Buffalo? You have disappeared from my screen as a division competitor. The Jets and Patriots — and even the Dolphins — have replaced you. What better team to return to glory against than the one that quits in close games. At least that is what some of its players are saying. Brady Quinn had a nice game against the Broncos. But only six passes went to wide receivers. He will have to do better than that if he wants to win on the road. The Bills will need to get Marshawn Lynch back on track to keep their banged up defense on the sidelines for as long as possible. Buffalo should win this game but it may not be easy or pretty.

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From the Fans
While we would love nothing more than to be able to focus entirely on callers to the show — this blog needs a little meat to it so each week we select several questions to answer here. We receive these questions from email, YIM and bulletin boards that we frequent. Here are this week’s questions to consider. This week I will also include a trade question I was asked.

dalimus (FantasySharks.com)
I currently have Matt Ryan in as the starter but I am so tempted to put Tony Romo in. I think Ryan is the safe play but Romo could blow it up in a must win game.

Game Day Advisor: Ryan is the safer play on the surface. He is playing well and his top receiver will not have to face Champ Bailey — be sure to check Game Day Advisor to see if Bailey is inactive). And Romo is playing with a splint on his finger and on the road. All things being equal you should go with Ryan. But all things are not equal. The Cowboys need a win and to get it Romo will have to have a good day — start Tony Romo.

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theqman11 (FantasySharks.com)
Who would you start this week at QB?

Matt Hasselbeck vs. Cards
Jeff Garcia vs. Vikes

Obviously, Hasselbeck will be rusty, but nontheless, a good matchup against the 3rd worst pass “D” in the league.

Garcia will be throwing all day due to going against the best run “D” in the league.

TD/6 points
25 pass yards/1 point
10 rush yards/1 point

Game Day Advisor: At the beginning of the year this would have been a ludicrous question. Garcia was holding out and Brian Griese was being touted as the starter in Tampa. It is still a ludicrous question but for different reasons. Hasselbeck is one hit from taking the bench and potentially being force to retire. He has done nothing this year nor has his team. At the same time Garcia has played well and has his team sitting at 6-3. Go with Jeff Garcia until you see Hasselbeck do something.

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NoleMan (FantasySharks.com)
Ten teams. Standard scoring.

Chris Johnson against a pissed off Jags team that has something to play for, or Joseph Addai against a putty soft D. Will he go off this week?

Game Day Advisor: Addai has looked pathetic even when he has played. Johnson has looked like a five year veteran but he seems to have hit the rookie wall. With the Indy passing game coming together, the fact that this is a home game and Addai finally healthy, I think you need to start Joseph Addai this week.

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godallasaf (FantasySharks.com)
It was reported that Chiefs plan to give Larry Johnson 10-15 carries. Does that make Maurice Jones-Drew the better starter even though he is against the Titans?

Game Day Advisor: MJD does get points in the passing game which makes it hard to sit him any time. But he also splits touches with Freddie Taylor and is facing, potentially, the best defense in the league. I would start Larry Johnson because he has the better matchup, more to prove, and Herm Edwards has to know his job hangs in the ballance following last week’s decision to go for two instead of taking the game to overtime.

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Dman05888 (FantasySharks.com)
It’s a PPR league, with 1 point/10 yds and 6 points/td. I have my division all but locked up, but I would love to add insult to injury. So who do I start between Mark Bradley, Steve Breaston and Donnie Avery?

Game Day Advisor: Avery has shown he can get deep. Bradley has become an important part of Tyler Thigpen’s passing game. And Breaston contines to catch passes despite the return of Anquan Boldin. This is a very nice place to be after you have already locked up your division. I think you have to eliminate Avery due to his inconsistency — he has had two straight sub-par games. Both Bradley and Breaston have had good outings in three of their past four games though. Bradley is the number three receiver behind Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe while Breaston is number three behind Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. What this comes down to is that I trust Kurt Warner to have a big game more than I do Tyler Thigpen — start Steve Breaston.

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dash951 (FantasySharks.com)
I need one of these two. Braylon Edwards or Devery Henderson. I want to start Edwards, but he’s killed me all year. Henderson against the Chiefs seems like the better move. What do you think?

Game Day Advisor: This year both players suck. Edwards has seven more catches while Henderson has 97 more yards (counting rushing yards). Both have three TDs. For Cleveland to beat Buffalo they will have to throw the ball and this week they will have to utilize their wideouts. With Aaron Schobel expected to miss the game, I would go with this week.

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Final Thought
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Fantasy Sports Group’s Game Day Advisor is your resource for last minute information on Game Day Inactives, starting lineup questsions and analsyis of the day’s games. Starting at noon ET and running for an hour, the FSG hosts will provide advice and discussion on any of your questions.

Point your browser at http://www.blogtalkradio.com/Fantasy-Sports-Group or call in at (347) 826-9620 .

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komments

Greg Kellogg is an award winning Fantasy Football writer that can now be found at FantasySharks.com

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