Miami +3 at Carolina
The Dolphins will start life without running back Ronnie Brown tonight. The first question is can RB Ricky Williams take over the full time role. I know he’s having a great season, but is that because he is being kept fresh by only touching the ball 12-15 times a game. His workload could be doubled now. The second question is with Brown, will the Dolphins still the wildcat offense as much. Brown was the QB of that offense. As for Carolina, the best way to attack Miami is through the air, and the Panthers attack best on the ground, something has to give.
Fantasy Impact: Williams is a low end RB1 or high end RB2, either way, he should be started in all formats.
Prediction: Carolina
Washington +11 at Dallas
The Redskins come into this game after upsetting the Denver Broncos in Week 11. The Redskins will try and keep the ball on the ground with Ladell Betts and wear down the Dallas defensive line. Problem with that theory is that the Skins don’t have the offensive line to push the Dallas defenders around. The Cowboys once again need to find some consistency. Once again they forgot about the running game last week in Green Bay. That’s hard to fathom when they have Marian Barber, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice on the roster. The bigger concern is the offensive line. It’s starting to show some cracks and quarterback Tony Romo took quite a few big hits last week.
Fantasy Impact: The Skins will do just what the Packers did and throw an array of blitzes at the Cowboys offensive line and see if they can pick it up. They couldn’t last week. That’s a boom or bust philosophy, if Romo finds the open receiver; Dallas could hit a few big plays.
Prediction: Washington
Cleveland +4 at Detroit
Oh where do I start here? You know you’re a bad team when you’re getting points at Detroit, and Cleveland is a terrible team. Even against the Lions I can’t start anyone here. As for Detroit, well the game is blacked out so at least the home town fans won’t have to worry about watching this abomination.
Fantasy Impact: I’d start Megatron and Kevin Smith here, not expecting huge days, but they should be serviceable.
Prediction: Detroit
San Francisco +7 at Green Bay
Back in the 90s this game would’ve been the game of the week; nowadays it’s just another game on the schedule. Quarterback Alex Smith doesn’t seem to be the answer for the 49ers. He may have a stronger arm that Shaun Hill, but he is still not leading the team to the end zone all that often. Running Back Frank Gore is the engine that runs the 49ers offense, but one has to think that the Pack will do all they can to stop him? Speaking of the Packers, we know they can score points; the key is keeping Quarterback Aaron Rodgers upright.
Fantasy Impact: Against Dallas in Week 10, the Packers covered tight end Jason Witten with cornerback Charles Woodson and Witten was pretty much invisible; one has to think they will do the same with Vernon Davis.
Prediction: Green Bay
Pittsburgh -10 at Kansas City
The Steelers are coming off a tough loss to the Bengals so perhaps a gimme game against the Chiefs is just what the doctor ordered. The Chiefs secondary is putrid and that his how you attack them. Look for Pittsburgh to put the ball in the air early and often. Chiefs wide receiver Dwayne Bowe was suspended four games for taking something against the league’s substance abuse policy. Make sure you deactivate him. After saying that running back Kolby Smith would split the carries with Jamaal Charles, Charles ended up with the majority of the carries, he is the back you want there.
Fantasy Impact: I’m starting all three of the Steeler WRs here, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, and even Mike Wallace, who is being targeted as much or more than Holmes the past couple of weeks.
Prediction: Pittsburgh
Seattle +11 at Minnesota
With the injury to running back Julius Jones, Justin Forsett will finally get to show what he can do. The problem is he has to show it against the Vikings purple wall. Though he may not get much yardage on the ground, he catches the ball pretty well out of the backfield also, so his day may not be a total loss even if he can’t find running room on the ground. The Vikings will just look to keep on rolling here. They will mix it up plenty with running back Adrian Peterson and quarterback Brett Favre. Points should be scored aplenty here.
Fantasy Impact: You can’t run on the Vikings, but you can pass, I wouldn’t be afraid of starting quarterback Matt Hasselback here, or WRs Nate Burleson and TJ Houschmandzadeh.
Prediction: Seattle
Atlanta +7 at Giants
This is as close to a must win as you will see in Week 11. Both teams come in a 5-4, with the loser not only being at .500 but also losing the tiebreaker battle to the other. The Falcons may not have running back Michael Turner which will leave the running game to Jason Snelling as Jerius Norwood is also unlikely to play here. The Giants are coming off their bye week and are as healthy as they have been all year. The Giants may want to rush the ball, but the way to beat the Falcons is through the air as they are pretty thin in the secondary.
Fantasy Impact: Turner and the Falcons keep acting like there is a chance that Turner can play on Sunday, but that’s highly unlikely.
Prediction: Giants
New Orleans -11 at Tampa Bay
The undefeated Saints have been playing down to their competition the past two week. Sure they beat Carolina and St. Louis, but they haven’t been all that impressive in either victory, especially in the first half. The Bucs have shown some life since rookie quarterback Josh Freeman has taken the reigns. They should’ve beaten the Dolphins last week but the defense let up a late score. The Bucs know they can’t go blow for blow with the Saints so look for a heavy dose of Cadillac Williams.
Fantasy Impact: Big shocker, you’re starting everyone on New Orleans here.
Prediction: New Orleans
Buffalo +9 at Jacksonville
I’m not sure what firing your head coach will do mid-season, but we are about to find out as the Bills dumped Dick Juaron this past week. They also dumped Trent Edwards as they will go back to Ryan Fitzpatrick as their starting quarterback. Tell me you don’t want to see what wide receiver Terrell Owens will do this week. Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew should find plenty of running room in this one. Quarterback David Garrard shouldn’t have much of a problem either, that being said whenever I think Garrad is going to go off, he usually gets shutdown.
Fantasy Impact: Hard not to start Garrard and WR Michael Sims-Walker in this one.
Prediction: Buffalo
Indianapolis +2 at Baltimore
The Colts come off a big win at home and then go on the road versus Baltimore. Now you know why the odds makers are favoring the Ravens. The Ravens defense is not what it was in past years and they can be thrown on, so quarterback Peyton Manning should be able to find his receivers. The Ravens are going to send their blitzes and if they can’t get through to Manning, Indy will hit their share of big plays. Baltimore strength is running the ball with Ray Rice, but with the Colts minus ¾ of their secondary you have to figure that QB Joe Flacco is going to take his shot.
Fantasy Impact: I know it’s Baltimore, but I’m still starting the usual suspects on Indy. Would start Flacco also for Baltimore, maybe even WR Derek Mason.
Prediction: Indianapolis
Arizona -9 at St. Louis
Even after the big game last week from Chris Wells, the Cardinals still state that nothing has changed as far as their running game and Wells will still split carries with Tim Hightower. That’s all fine and good but sooner or later you have to start the better back. The Rams played a spirited game against the Saints last week and running back Steven Jackson has proven to everyone that even when the other team knows he’s getting the ball, he is still going to do damage.
Fantasy Impact: I know Rams wide receiver Donnie Avery looked really good last week but remember the Cardinals placed cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie on Nate Burleson last week and he didn’t have a catch, they just might do the same with Avery.
Prediction: Arizona
San Diego even at Denver
A huge game in the AFC West race as both teams are tied at 6-3 with the Broncos having defeated the Chargers earlier this season. If the Chargers win here this will be the second season in a row that the Broncos have blown a three game lead to the Chargers in the division. Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson finally showed some life last week and if he can continue to do so than the Chargers offense could take them to the next level. As for the Broncos they come into this game with quarterback Kyle Orton being questionable with torn ligaments in his ankle. Even if he were to play, he’d be a sitting duck and may have trouble throwing the ball with his normal velocity.
Fantasy Impact: Orton hasn’t practiced all week; I would expect Chris Simms to take the reins once again.
Prediction: San Diego
Cincinnati -10 at Oakland
We know the Bengals are going to win this game, so why watch? I have no idea. Maybe you’re curious to find out if Bengals running back Cedric Benson plays with his hip injury. Maybe you want to see what wide receiver Chad Johnson will do if and when he scores a touchdown. Maybe you just can’t wait to see Raiders quarterback Bruce Gradowski get his first start.
Fantasy Impact: I would think Benson is unlikely to play; there really is no reason to risk injury in this game, which is a shame because the Raiders can’t stop a runny nose, more or less a top running back.
Prediction: Cincinnati
Jets +11 at New England
The Jets are quickly falling off the playoff map and the Patriots just may be the team to push them off that cliff. The Jets defeated the Patriots earlier this season but that was before quarterback Tom Brady had found his groove and the Pats played without wide receiver Wes Welker. Now that the Jets have lost Kris Jenkins it will be much tougher to put that pressure up the middle against Brady. For those of you who have been enjoying running back Laurence Maroney’s limited success the past few weeks, that’s about to come to an end as Sammy Morris makes his return to the lineup.
Fantasy Impact: After the first meeting between these two Patriots wide receiver Randy Moss had complementary to say about Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis, this should be an interesting rematch.
Prediction: New England
Philadelphia -3 at Chicago
Eagles running back Brian Westbrook will miss this game with his second concussion in three weeks leaving the running game in the hands on rookie LeSean McCoy. One has to wonder if pass happy coach Andy Reid will run the ball even less now and continue to trust quarterback Donovan McNabb with the ball. Bears quarterback Jay Cutler could be in for a rough game. We all know about his trouble with interceptions and you have to believe the Eagles will call out an assortment of blitzes to try and force him into some more bad decisions, and if he were to throw a pick or five, the home crowd is sure to let him hear it.
Fantasy Impact: The Bears have had trouble running the ball most of the season, and if they can’t get RB Matt Forte going here, this could be a long game.
Prediction: Philadelphia
Tennessee +5 at Houston
Not the greatest Monday night game, but not the worst either. Vince Young has won all three games he has started for the Titans and running back Chris Johnson is making a bid for fantasy MVP. Even if the Texans play eight in the box, it may not matter, if Johnson sees one little crack he can go the distance. The Texans are right in the middle of the wildcard hunt and need to take the hammer to the nail after coming off their bye. They should have used that week to figure out how to distribute the passes that would’ve normally gone to tight end Owen Daniels as wide receiver Andre Johnson is sure to receive most of the attention from the Titans defense.
Fantasy Impact: Ryan Moats should start again at running back for the Texans, but Steve Slaton will see his share of carries also. During the bye week he worked at holding the ball high to avoid fumbling.
Prediction: Tennessee
LAST WEEK
7-7-1
OVERALL
86-56-2
