New Orleans +5 vs Indianapolis

Finally the Super Bowl is upon us. The biggest party day of the year (non-holiday) is just three days away. No more media asking stupid questions, time to get serious about the game.

Saints quarterback Drew Brees will lead a potent offense that will be expected to put up quite a few points on Sunday. Brees has plenty of options to choose from. Wide receivers Marques Colston and tight end Jeremy Shockey will work the middle of the field while WRs Robbie Meacham and Devery Henderson will handle the deep passes.

Running Back Pierre Thomas should get the bulk of the load rushing the ball, but with the game expected to be a high scoring affair, RB Reggie Bush may have a bigger impact as he can be quite a threat catching the ball out of the backfield. Bush has been running hard in the playoffs, actually choosing to try and run through tacklers rather than go around them. Bush, like most of the Saints however, did have issues in the second half of the Championship, muffing a punt, and dropping a third down pass that would’ve led to a key first down.

That is one of the big questions for the Saints in this game, can they get over their butterflies and jitters early enough to keep them in the game. If not for the fact that Minnesota turned the ball over five times during the NFC Championship game, the Saints wouldn’t even be here. They will not get so lucky against the Colts, they will need to play better. On defense the Saints are average at best, but what makes them dangerous is their propensity to cause turnovers. Like we mentioned above they caused the Vikings to fumble the ball five times and throw two interceptions, they also beat Vikings quarterback Brett Favre to a bloody pulp.

Defensively they are sure to try and pressure Colts QB Peyton Manning. Problem is Manning is so good at reading where the pressure will come from, he will adjust his protection to block the blitz, or find his hot receiver, or throw the ball away. Manning just doesn’t take many big hits. He seems to be a big believer in living to fight another play, and if you blitz Manning too much, sooner or later he will make you pay.

As for the Colts, their biggest concern is the health of defensive end Dwight Freeney. Freeney has torn ligaments in his right ankle. This kind of injury would normally take 6-8 weeks to heal, Freeney will try to do it in two. While Freeney has proved to be a quick healer before it’s highly unlikely that he will be a major factor if any on Sunday. His loss will have a domino effect as it will allow the Saints to concentrate on DE Robert Mathis. They can double team him if they wish, making sure he can’t get to the quarterback. Will this lead the Colts to blitz Brees more than they normally would?

Brees like Manning can hit the big play if the blitz is unable to get there. Everything states this game is going to be a shootout and that should fit Manning just fine. The Saints don’t possess a cornerback in Darrelle Revis who can lock down WR Reggie Wayne, but even if they did Manning could just turn to tight end Dallas Clark or either one of his other two receivers, Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie.

The Colts may also have success running the ball with Joseph Addai and Donald Brown as the Saints aren’t all that great against the run, but like the Saints, they may go away from the ground game quickly and put the ball into the hands of their best player, Peyton Manning.

This game seemingly could come down to whoever has the ball last, but will probably be determined by turnovers and whichever team makes the least amount of mistakes. I was all prepared to pick the Colts with confidence until I heard about Freeney, now I do have some doubts. The Saints really didn’t play all that well against the Vikings, looked awfully nervous. The Super Bowl may not do anything to ease those nerves. I still believe the Colts win the game, but I’ll take the points.

Prediction: New Orleans

Last Week: 1-1

Overall 140-122-4