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Game Day Advisor - Week Four

By komments on Sunday, 28th September 2008

McFadden or Turner?

Every week we host a pregame chat/call-in show where we discuss the Game Day Inactives for the early Sunday games along with dispensing advice on who to start or bench. We welcome calls from anyone with a question and try to get everyone on the air.

To listen, just point your browser to http://www.blogtalkradio.com/Fantasy-Sports-Group.

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The number to call in is (347) 826-9620.

News
NFL Officiating
New Orleans Saints coach Sean Payton has been fined $15,000 for his comments critical of officiating during the team’s 34-32 loss to the Denver Broncos last Sunday, league and team sources said Saturday.

Payton is expected to appeal the fine, a team source said. He was critical in his Monday press conference, citing an obvious error in which Broncos linebacker Jamie Winborn appeared to be lined up in the neutral zone on third and 1 with 2:40 left to play.

There was no penalty called, which would have given the Saints a first down at the Denver 19-yard line with a little more than two minutes to play. The Saints lost a yard on the play and Martin Gramatica missed a 43-yard field goal in the two-point loss.

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Bulletin Board Material
The first-round pick from Illinois, whose first career start will come against the Ravens on “Monday Night Football,” recently sent a text message to friend and Ravens rookie tailback Ray Rice saying he’s going to have a big game against the NFL’s top-ranked defense.

Obviously, Rice, who often praises the Ravens’ defense as “scary,” passed the text message along to his teammates, who are not taking Mendenhall’s proclamation lightly.

“He said later that he was just joking, but it’s too late,” Ravens linebacker Bart Scott said. “Thanks for the bulletin-board material, rookie.”

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On Bye
Detroit, Indianapolis, Miami, New England, New York Giants and Seattle

Week Four
Atlanta @ Carolina
One of these teams will leave this weekend with a 3-1 record and at least a tie for the lead in the NFC South division. The other will fall to 2-2 and potentially the basement. Pretty good division. Atlanta has rookie corners facing Steve Smith. Carolina is giving up 5.0 ypc on the ground. Michael Turner and Smith should put on a pretty good show today.

Inactives
Atlanta: C Alex Stepanovich, QB D.J. Shockley, CB David Irons, TE Jason Rader, WR Laurent Robinson, OL Sam Baker, DL Simon Fraser, LB Tony Gilbert

Carolina: CB C.J. Wilson, WR Dwayne Jarrett, OT Frank Omiyale, DL Gary Gibson, LB James Anderson, OG Mackenzy Bernadeau, QB Matt Moore, WR Ryne Robinson

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Cleveland @ Cincinnati
The battle of the 0-3’s. Both coaches jobs seem secure but why is that? Other coaches sitting at 0-3 are on the bubble - shouldn’t these guys be too? Carson Palmer already has more than half the total sacks he suffered in 2007 - but fortunately the Browns can’t rush the passer. Doesn’t seem like they can do much of anything as they rank 30th in rushing and 31st in passing - and I thought the Lions were bad. Oh, wait a minute - the Lions ARE bad. Cleveland is just worse.

Inactives
Cleveland: LB Beau Bell, WR Donte’ Stallworth, QB Ken Dorsey, TE Martin Rucker, OT Ryan Tucker, OG Scott Young, SS Sean Jones, LB Willie McGinest

Cincinnati: WR Andre Caldwell, QB Carson Palmer, SS Dexter Jackson, SS Herana-Daze Jones, DL Jason Shirley, CB Johnathan Joseph, RB Kenny Watson, DL Pat Sims

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Houston @ Jacksonville
Don’t tell Fred Taylor that RBs die at 30. Since reaching that age, Taylor is third in the NFL in runs of at least 10 yards with 73. And that is despite splitting time — or maybe because of it — with Maurice Jones-Drew. Look for Mario Williams to line up inside on occassion to test the Jags rebuilt interior line. Meanwhile Jacksonville will try to take the focus off David Garrard by pounding the ball against a porous Texans run defense.

Inactives
Houston: RB Ahman Green, SS Brandon Harrison, FS Eugene Wilson, OG Kasey Studdard, TE Mark Bruener, DL N.D. Kalu, OL Rashad Butler, DL Tim Bulman

Jacksonville: C Brad Meester, OG Charles Spencer, OG Chris Naeole, WR Dennis Northcutt, LB Justin Durant, FS Reggie Nelson, DL Tony McDaniel, WR Troy Williamson

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Denver @ Kansas City
This smells remarkably like a trap game. Denver is on top of the world. Kansas City looks like a poorly run high school team. Next week Denver travels to Tampa to take on a team that shares the lead of its division. This week they face a team that will have an actual NFL quarterback under center. Did I mention that the Chiefs, as pitiful as they have been in most phases of the game, have the fourth ranked pass defense?

Inactives
Denver: WR Darrell Jackson, DL Dewayne Robertson, OG Dylan Gandy, OG Erik Pears, DL Josh Shaw, LB Louis Green, RB Ryan Torain, SS Vernon Fox

Kansas City: CB B.J. Sams, OL Barry Richardson, OL Brian De La Puente, QB Brodie Croyle, LB Donnie Edwards, QB Ingle Martin, LB Napoleon Harris, CB Patrick Surtain

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San Francisco @ New Orleans
I hate to admit when I am wrong but on the JT O’Sullivan front, it certainly appears that I was not only wrong, but very wrong. He seems to have a grasp of the offense, an awareness in the pocket and the arm strength needed to make every throw. How did Detroit let him get away? Oh yeah — he who shall not be named did it. But he has been vanquished and banished from the not so hallowed streets of the Motor City. As for this game, Justin Smith vs. a rebuilt left (blind) side and no Marques Colston or Jeremy Shockey should spell a very long day for the New Orleans faithful.

Inactives
San Francisco: LB Ahmad Brooks, C Cody Wallace, QB Jamie Martin, OT Jonas Jennings, CB Marcus Hudson, CB Reggie Smith, CB Shawntae Spencer, LB Tully Banta-Cain

New Orleans: CB Aaron Glenn, RB Aaron Stecker, TE Jeremy Shockey, OT Jermon Bushrod, DL Josh Savage, WR Marques Colston, FB Mike Karney, CB Randall Gay

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Arizona @ New York Jets
Arizona is 2-1 but hasn’t proven they can win against quality teams on the road. They fell to Washington last week and will have some problems with the Jets but are the Jets really a quality team? I see this one turning into another shootout with Kurt Warner and Brett Favre both having success.

Inactives
Arizona: SS Adrian Wilson, DL Bertrand Berry, OT Brandon Keith, QB Brian St. Pierre, WR Early Doucet, DL Gabe Watson, RB J.J. Arrington, TE Jerame Tuman

New York Jets: QB Brett Ratliff, WR David Clowney, QB Erik Ainge, CB Justin Miller, DL Kareem Brown, LB Marques Murrell, PK Mike Nugent, P Reggie Hodges

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Green Bay @ Tampa Bay
The battle of the Bays — there was a time when this was a laugher. There was also a time when this was a division matchup. No longer true for either statement. For the first time this season Ryan Grant is not listed on the injury report but Aaron Rogers has to prove he can play well against a good defense on the road. If he does, the Packers should win but Brian Griese has been better than people think — in 18 starts for Jon Gruden, Griese has 30 TDs and over 4,000 yards.

Inactives
Green Bay: CB Al Harris, SS Atari Bigby, OT Breno Giacomini, QB Brian Brohm, WR James Jones, DL Jeremy Thompson, FB Korey Hall, RB Kregg Lumpkin

Tampa Bay: FB B.J. Askew, OG Davin Joseph, OL James Lee, QB Jeff Garcia, WR Joey Galloway, QB Josh Johnson, LB Matt McCoy, DL Ryan Sims

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Minnesota @ Tennessee
Those of us who picked Minnesota to be 3-0 heading into this weekend also thought Tennessee would be a pushover for them. Not so. But Tennessee will have trouble running against the Vikings interior line. I suspect you will see a lot of rookie RB Chris Johnson just because of his speed to the outside. The key to this game could be which defender comes up bigger, Jerad Allen or Kyle Vanden Bosch.

Inactives
Minnesota: OL Drew Radovich, TE Jeff Dugan, QB John David Booty, FS Madieu Williams, CB Marcus McCauley, DL Ray Edwards, FB Thomas Tapeh, LB Vinny Ciurciu

Tennessee: RB Chris J. Henry, DL Kevin Vickerson, WR Lavelle Hawkins, OT Mike Otto, WR Paul Williams, LB Stanford Keglar, QB Vince Young, DL William Hayes

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Late Games
San Diego @ Oakland
If the Chargers lose will LaDainian Tomlinson cry again? This is a battle of the backs with the sore toes. Tomlinson scored twice last week but 26 carries for 67 yards with a long of 5 yards tells me his toe is still bothering him. Darren McFadden has been in a boot all week and boasted a 3.0 ypc average last week — certainly not stellar — while Michael Bush is quietly impressing the coaching staff in Oakland.

Buffalo @ St. Louis
This could be another trap game except for two things. One, the Bills almost lost to Oakland last week. That should serve as a wakeup call. And two, the Rams really are that bad. Bad coaching (which will be corrected shortly) combined with bad playmaking — I mean what does it say when your star receiver apologizes to the former starting quarterback for not playing well enough for him to hold his job — spell trouble and that starts with T which rhymes with B which is the initial of the town that will win this game.

Washington @ Dallas
This is always a good game — though not always close — and you never know which team will win. Dallas should hold all the cards but it seems like the Redskins are adapting well to Jim Zorn’s version of the West Coast Offense and Dallas seems to have forgotten they have one of the most explosive receivers in the game. Perhaps they should remember Terrell Owens this week.

Philadelphia @ Chicago
Another admission of blindness on my part. I thought Chicago would battle Detroit for the basement of the NFC North. They still may, but they are much, MUCH better than the Lions. However, they need to find a pass rush and fast or Philadelphia will spank them even with their best players sitting out. No sacks in 67 attempts? What’s up with that?

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
It seems like each week so far this year we have had an excellent game for Monday Night. Last week was a scoring fest. If you are expecting an offensive explosion this week, I wouldn’t hold my breath — so build a lead on Sunday because offensive fantasy points are likely to be hard to find Monday night. Two stellar defenses combined with conservative offenses should produce an interesting game only for true fans of the NFL.

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From the Fans
grantsa4
We are in a 16 team dynasty league. We start 1 QB
4 points for a TD for QB,1 point per 50 yards, 2 points deducted for a pick and bonus points if the qb throws for 300 yards.

We have Favre and JTO.
Should we start Favre vs the Cards or JTO vs the Saints?

Game Day Advisor: JT O’Sullivan is the ninth ranked quarterback in HAFA scoring. He had a rough week one but rebounded with 35 and 25 points in weeks two and three, respectively. Brett Favre is the 11th ranked quarterback and has scored 21, 14 and 28 points in the first three weeks. He has outscored O’Sullivan in two of three games. But this week, O’Sullivan faces a defense that is giving up, on average, 22.07 ppg to quarterbacks. Favre’s opponent is only allowing 13.88 ppg to quarterbacks. Favre is still trying to get on the same page as his receivers so for week four, Game Day Advisor recommends JT O’Sullivan as your starter.

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flyingdutchmen
I currently have Bryant Johnson as my #3 WR.

I heard he may not play.

Who is a better WW pickup to replace him?

Lance Moore or Josh Reed?

Game Day Advisor: First, due to the nature of the game to be played, Game Day Advisor recommends you wait til the last minute to make a decision. Johnson missed both Wednesday and Thursday’s practices but the team hopes to have him on the field in what could be a pass-fest. Lance Moore will compete for catches with Robert Meachem and Reggie Bush. In addition, Brees may be under pressure a lot this week. Finally, the 49ers are allowing just 24.23 ppg to ALL opposing WRs — a number that is 8th best in the league. The Saints are giving up 45.10 (fifth worst). So I would rather have Johnson than Moore. As for Reed, he has a favorable matchup this week as well. The Rams are the second worst team in the league, allowing 51.60 ppg to opposing receivers. But Reed has to compete with four players for his touchs — Marshawn Lynch, Lee Evans and rookie James Hardy. Reed does lead the Bills in receptions with 13 but he has yet to find the end zone and is averaging just over 11 yards per catch. If Johnson is a Game Day Inactive, grab Reed but if not, stick with Johnson.

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chargers2185 (FantasySharks.com)
Rivers @ Oakland
Romo vs. Washington

Game Day Advisor: Who would have thought, at the beginning of the season, that this would be a viable question. Tony Romo was clearly the higher rated quarterback coming in to 2008. But three games changes things and right now, Philip Rivers is the top rated QB in the league. Romo is fifth which is respectable, but in each week this season he has been outscored by Rivers. The Raiders are giving up 19.73 ppg to opposing QBs in HAFA scoring. The Redskins are giving up 16.03. Close enough to call it a push. Often the weather can make a difference. San Diego is on the road at Oakland where the winds are known to swirl while Dallas is at home in a dome. However, the weather report for today’s game in Oakland shows 72 degrees with light winds (6 MPH). Game Day Advisor recommends sticking with the hot hand — start Philip Rivers.

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cubsfan05 (FantasySharks.com)
Should I start Darren McFadden or Michael Turner?

Game Day Advisor: Darren McFadden followed up an explosive week 2 outing with a pedestrian week 3 game. He averaged just 3.0 ypc on 14 carries while splitting time with Michael Bush who was more effective. McFadden has spent the week in a boot showing that his toe is still bothering him. In a PPR league, McFadden’s value should go up but he has caught just five balls in three games. Michael Turner has had two outstanding games against subpar opponents and one lousy game against a solid opponent. He plays a good opponent this weekend but Carolina is giving up 5.0 ypc to opposing RBs. The hidden story here is that the Panthers are giving up 23.27 ppg to running backs while the Chargers have been scary good — second in the league to the Ravens by giving up just 17.00 ppg to backs. Game Day Advisor recommends Michael Turner.

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bohern (FantasySharks.com)
Scoring is 1 point per catch, 1 per 20 yds, 6 per TD - pick one of Laveranues Coles, Issac Bruce or Eddie Royal.

Game Day Advisor: A quick look at the numbers would suggest you have to go with Coles but we at Game Day Advisor don’t do quick looks. Royal’s numbers have dropped each week since the return of Brandon Marshall. Bruce was shut out in week one then had a four catch day for over 150 yards in week two. In week three he dropped off but did find the end zone. Coles has improved in each week this year going from one catch to three to six. Each player has out-scored the others once. Matchups show Bruce to have the best opponent. The Saints are giving up 45.10 ppg to opposing receivers whereas the Chiefs are allowing 31.53 and the Cardinals just 21.85. This decision will likely come down to which team gets into a shoot out or which receiver gets into the end zone. The Coles and Bruce games appear the most likely to be shootouts and since predicting TDs for receivers is a risky proposition at best, Game Day Advisor recommends Isaac Bruce for week 4.

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Final Thought
Fantasy Sports Group’s Game Day Advisor is your resource for last minute information on Game Day Inactives, starting lineup questsions and analsyis of the day’s games. Starting at noon ET and running for an hour, the FSG hosts will provide advice and discussion on any of your questions.

Point your browser at http://www.blogtalkradio.com/Fantasy-Sports-Group or call in at (347) 826-9620.

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komments

Greg Kellogg is an award winning Fantasy Football writer that can now be found at FantasySharks.com

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